Amanda Hocking is a Black Swan.

Let me explain.

There’s no science to it, but isolated events can be explained with the benefit of hindsight. If I had told you five years ago that she would have procured a multimillion dollar book deal, you would have correctly labeled me crazy. (You can read her Wikipedia page for more information about her rise to the top.) But she did, and from her example we can ostensibly learn a great deal.

Except you can only learn that after the fact.

When you write a book, you are gambling. Those of you who think that sure things exist are mistaken. External rewards in the form of massive book sales, bestseller lists, awards, speaking gigs, high-profile consulting, and the like may or may not come. (They probably won’t). In fact, when you do anything creative or artistic, you’re rolling the dice. Whether it’s writing, art, music, or movies, success on any term is almost always unexpected.

Seth Godin is the exception that proves the rule. He can put out a 10-page “book” that will hit the bestseller lists.

If you’re chasing external rewards or accolades, then you probably shouldn’t write. Write because you enjoy it, not because it’s the best use of your time or you think that it will make you a rock star.